Market data clearly shows the accumulation of growth momentum. As of August 5, 2025, the bitcoin cad trading pair was quoted at 63,500 CAD, with an increase of 18% over the past 30 days, far exceeding the 3.2% return rate of the S&P 500 index during the same period. The average daily trading volume of Bitbuy, a major Canadian exchange, exceeded 3.4 billion CAD, an increase of 22% compared to the average of Q4 2024. The open interest in the derivatives market rose by 40% to 920 million CAD. The CME Bitcoin futures premium remained 0.8% higher than the spot price, reflecting strengthened institutional demand. Technical indicators are strengthening the trend: The 200-day moving average has risen to 58,000 CAD to form support, the RSI index is at 65 (not overbought), and the MACD bar chart has been positive for 15 consecutive days, indicating a mid-term upward probability of 70%. Historical comparison with the halving cycle in 2023 shows that the average return rate within 90 days after the appearance of similar signals is 25%.
Regulatory compliance has become a key catalyst. The new regulations of the Canadian CSA have raised the compliance rate of exchanges from 30% to 82%, and the asset management scale of the Purpose Bitcoin ETF has reached 4.7 billion CAD (annual growth rate of 61%). The number of enterprise adoption cases has significantly increased. After integrating the Lightning Network, Canadian e-commerce giant Shopify saw an average monthly increase of 500,000 Bitcoin settlement transactions, saving approximately 1.2 million CAD in cross-border payment costs per month. The central bank’s policy trends have provided assistance. Canada’s inflation rate of 2.8% has pushed the proportion of pension funds allocated to cryptocurrencies to 2.3% (only 0.7% in 2024). According to the disclosure documents of CDPQ, a Quebec savings and investment group, every 1% increase in its digital asset strategic allocation can bring an additional CAD of 150 million in buying.
On-chain data verifies the intensity of capital inflows. The number of non-zero addresses on the Bitcoin network has exceeded 50 million, and the proportion of Canadian users has risen to 5% (3% in 2023). Glassnode statistics show that the holdings of “diamond hands” who have held their tokens for over a year have increased by 120,000 BTC in the past 90 days, while the exchange reserves have decreased to 11.8% of the circulating volume, the lowest level since 2018, indicating a significant supply tightening effect. Miner behavior indicators support a bull market judgment. Against the backdrop of computing power reaching a new high of 700 EH/s and energy costs accounting for 30%, the daily selling volume of miners has dropped to the range of 200-400 BTC, a decrease of 80% compared to the bear market cycle in 2024, indicating a strengthening of industry confidence.
The risk dimension requires vigilance. The volatility index DVOL has risen to 65 (higher than the annual average of 55), indicating a 30% probability of a short-term correction. Historical backtesting shows that when the bitcoin cad relative strength index exceeds 70, the median drawdown within 5 days is 8.2% (such as the flash crash case in April 2024). Regulatory uncertainties still exist. If the US SEC rejects the Ethereum ETF, the ripple effect may cause the intraday fluctuation range of Bitcoin to expand to 15%. However, technological breakthroughs such as the Taproot upgrade have reduced transaction costs by 75%, and Layer2 solutions have achieved a throughput of over a million transactions per second. Coupled with the expectation of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates (with a 75% probability), the medium-term momentum still points to the 78,000 CAD target. Investors are advised to adopt a regular investment strategy to reduce timing risks, with the allocation ratio not exceeding 5% of the total investment portfolio.